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I think we collectively oversell the idea of predictions in information security. There isn't any real prognostication going on. No one is peering into the future. They're just looking at what's going on right now and drawing some entirely reasonable conclusions about whether or not it's going to become a bigger problem in the next year. The real value is in identifying and highlighting the trends, but trends aren't really sexy the way predictions are, so a bunch of people like to set aside some time at this time of year to pretend they have some special insight into the future rather than just telling people what they've been paying attention to recently.
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